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attn: knowledgeable red sox fans586 views |
| bsullivan - 1/23/07, 6:03 am |
| Honestly, how do you feel about the redsox team this year? what kind of potential do they have? use this as an opportunity to educate me. |
| bsullivan - 1/23/07, 6:05 am |
| [see also: help me forget about the patriots] |
| peterbing - 1/23/07, 6:05 am |
| i think we're going to need our fantastic-on-paper starting rotation to actually be pretty fantastic. |
| nate - 1/23/07, 6:07 am |
| i think pbing's on point the bullpen has me a little worried as do the batting lineups of the yankees and blue jays |
| peter - 1/23/07, 6:09 am |
| At least on paper, the Sox rotation and bullpen look greatly upgraded from last year. Don't let
people distract you with talk of an unsettled closer. Bobby Jenks certainly didn't have the job in
Spring Training and he was pretty amazing during the White Sox run to the WS. I'm somewhat worried about the JD Drew situation. If he's able to stay healthy (for the first time in his career) he would provide an offensive upgrade over Nixon, but the health is a huge question. Pena is still a question-mark, which is a great big problem: he really needs some solid time in AAA to get to where he needs to be, but the Reds fucked up so badly in managing him that it's never going to happen. I saw Pedroia play a bit at second at the end of last year, and the kid's good. I think people will be favorably impressed by his defense and his hitting. Daisuke? Who knows. Could be Ichiro/Matsui good or could be a big, $103M whiff. My money's on good, though. 16 wins, ERA somewhere in the high 2's low 3's. |
| timm - 1/23/07, 6:09 am |
| I'm not a Red Sox fan but as a function of living in Boston and being friends exclusively with Red Sox fans -- everything said here is right on. Another "A better future is coming year!" though probably not as miserable as the close of last season. |
| brianct - 1/23/07, 6:09 am |
| the bullpen is iffy and pedroia at 2nd base could go either way. otherwise, i think the team is looking pretty good. i agree that the AL east will be a very tough division this year, but it only makes for some really good games. |
| peter - 1/23/07, 6:11 am |
| The pen is in better shape now than it was a year ago. This is inarguably factual. |
| timm - 1/23/07, 6:12 am |
| Also I feel like Drew is going to be the big whiff amongst the team's new acquisitions -- though Daisuke is not going to blow minds for a couple years probably. |
| peterbing - 1/23/07, 6:12 am |
| i dunno guys. we need to sign Reche Caldwell ASAP. does he throw righty or lefty? |
| nate - 1/23/07, 6:12 am |
| If he's able to stay healthy (for the first time in his career) this has been beaten to death, but j.d. drew played 145 and 146 games in 2004 and 2006, respectively 2005's total of 72 games was the result of a freak beanball incident, not, it would seem, anything inherent in drew's physiology |
| brianct - 1/23/07, 6:13 am |
| peter - 01/23/07 at 10:11 am (68.118.248.149) The pen is in better shape now than it was a year ago. This is inarguably factual. i agree w/ this 100%. but then again the pen was miserable last year. i'm just hoping they're able to have some consistency w/ it this time around. |
| its_snowing - 1/23/07, 6:13 am |
| i agree with the iffy bullpen issues. also, im not sure how good the starting rotation is going to
be either. schilling is ancient, and i think he's was past his prime. wakefield: iffy. beckett:
iffy. matsuzaka: probably 16-17 wins. papelbon: same. combine this with the question marks in the
bullpen, the huge defensive downgrade, and i think you've got another second place/wildcard team
bound for a first round exit from the playoffs at best. also i dont think j.d. drew is going to be playing for the red sox next year either, which is another problem. |
| iheartlawyers - 1/23/07, 6:13 am |
| we have a 500-post thread about the offseason moves in my post history. |
| peter - 1/23/07, 6:15 am |
| What question marks are you guys seeing in the bullpen? Brendan Donnelly? Joel Piñiero as a reliever? Good young arms like Delcarmen? |
| its_snowing - 1/23/07, 6:16 am |
| donnely had an off year last year. delcarmen could be good. i think the bullpen is high on potential, but low on actual past acheivement to point to. definitely a giant upgrade from last year. but thats not saying muc. |
| nokahoma - 1/23/07, 6:22 am |
| The entire rotation is a question mark. Could be amazing, could be almost disastrous. I think
Matsuzaka and Papelbon will be fine, but who can say. The bullpen should be solid(-ish), if unexciting. |
| bsullivan - 1/23/07, 6:23 am |
| justin, i wanted to read the cliffs notes. |
| BarXtheRockinM - 1/23/07, 6:23 am |
| an upgrade over last year? when Papelbon was the best closer in either league for the first 5
months? Say what you will about the 7th and 8th inning guys, but once a lead got to the 9th it was
held. We can't say that for sure this year. I think Beckett'll be a bit better this year than last...he was never average really, he was either dominant or terrible, I feel like he can get around a few of those terrible starts. Schilling's not gonna win 20 games, but he might win 15, as might Beckett, Matsuzaka, and Papelbon, and that's a pretty insane thing to pull off these days. The Sox have been without a consistently healthy right fielder for years anyhow. If Drew can play 130+ games I think he'll put up some real impressive numbers, and his presence will help Manny too. Tek, Lowell, and Trot just weren't that intimidating in the batter's box. I'm optimistic but grounded. I'm sure they'll win at least 90 games, and I see no reason to think that the Yanks will have improved at all. Toronto on the other hand, sheesh. |
| peter - 1/23/07, 6:25 am |
| Toronto is bringing it like 92-93 next year. |
| the.rog - 1/23/07, 6:26 am |
| sox are going to win 96 games. |
| ender - 1/23/07, 6:28 am |
| peterbing - 01/23/07 at 10:12 am (66.150.206.1) i dunno guys. we need to sign Reche Caldwell ASAP. does he throw righty or lefty? i dunno, but he can't catch. we need to sign asante samuel to play "deep outfield", and intercept anything that looks like it's going over the wall. |
| jimoo - 1/23/07, 6:36 am |
| Drew is damaged goods, they'd be better off to not sign him at all, or preferably make is a HEAVILY
incentive laden contract. Asante Samuel is gone. |
| iheartlawyers - 1/23/07, 6:39 am |
| here we go |
| peter - 1/23/07, 6:39 am |
| jimoo in a baseball thread is always a good time. |
| BarXtheRockinM - 1/23/07, 6:40 am |
| I really doubt they're gonna end up not signing Drew at all, and Scott Boras would never go for a
heavily incentive laden contract. I feel like that's the worst signing the Sox have made in years,
sure, but there is potential for a big upside, so I'm working on convincing myself that it'll be a
good thing in the long run. And yeah, Asante's gone. They'll never give him the kinda money he can get on the open market. |
| jimoo - 1/23/07, 6:41 am |
| If you want quality baseball knowledge from a quality baseball mind, yup. |
| jimoo - 1/23/07, 6:42 am |
| Drew will have no choice. Every other team he could have gone to has already spent their free agent money, the big price aquisition season is over. So either he has to take what he can get from the Sox, sit out a year (not happening), or sign a 1 year deal for less than he wants to play somewhere else and prive he is healthy. |
| BarXtheRockinM - 1/23/07, 6:42 am |
| Fortunately, nobody who makes actual decisions in this regard would ever listen to jimoo. Bear that
in mind, and just deal with him in these threads, because he has the right to join in. Jimoo, think you can avoid going the "you're an idiot for disagreeing with me" route this time? That'll get people to take you somewhat seriously, as opposed to the usual "oh great, here's that dick chiming in unwantedly again" stuff. |
| jimoo - 1/23/07, 6:43 am |
| Sure, avoiding that is easy, just don't be an idiot and it won't happen. Simple. |
| BarXtheRockinM - 1/23/07, 6:44 am |
| It's a shame. You do make somewhat decent points every once in a great while, they're just wrapped in so many layers of douchebaggery that it's tough to pick them out most of the time. |
| jimoo - 1/23/07, 6:46 am |
| All my points are decent or better. A litte douchebaggery wading is often neccesary to find the
truth. It is well worth it for those that are searching for the light* *cue Supertouch |
| severalmules - 1/23/07, 6:47 am |
| ill dig into this thread when i get to work. |
| BarXtheRockinM - 1/23/07, 6:50 am |
| Anyway, I'm excited for a (hopefully) healthy Coco...I'm glad they didn't go the one and done route with him like they did with Renteria. I don't think people realize yet just how much we're gonna miss Alex Gonzalez...Lugo's got mad range, supposedly even better than Gonzalez's, but it's more about what you do with the ball once you get to it, and he's no where near as solid there. Loretta wasn't a great defensive 2b, just solid, and I think Pedroia can do the job admirably. |
| brianct - 1/23/07, 6:58 am |
| jimoo - 01/23/07 at 10:46 am (128.103.189.36) All my points are decent or better. haha awesome. |
| matt-L - 1/23/07, 7:01 am |
| this week's Barstool Sports asserts that Alex Gonzalez "gets to more balls than Jeter in P-Town" |
| jimoo - 1/23/07, 7:06 am |
| I really have no idea why they let Gonzalez go. I know they are all about OBP, but that dude was a
vacuum at SS. Loretta was an All Star 2b last year, Pedroia better be able to step it up. He gave no indication he could last year, but being a end of year call up type of player is a different situation. |
| jay - 1/23/07, 7:11 am |
| infield defense shouldnt matter AS much this year (of course it does still matter) but the sox got 5 starting pitchers who produce more flyouts than groundouts |
| jay - 1/23/07, 7:13 am |
| but if the sox decide to go with a david pauley, kason gabbard, julian tavarez, derek lowe rotation then we may have some trouble |
| olive - 1/23/07, 7:16 am |
| i was gonna say, "where is adams response in this thread?" but then i saw: jimoo - 01/23/07 at 10:36 am (128.103.189.36) Drew is damaged goods, they'd be better off to not sign him at all, or preferably make is a HEAVILY incentive laden contract. Asante Samuel is gone. iheartlawyers - 01/23/07 at 10:39 am (66.91.94.91) here we go |
| ender - 1/23/07, 7:18 am |
| how many starters from last year are still on the roster? |
| peter - 1/23/07, 7:19 am |
| Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, Lester, Clement... almost all of them. |
| Fowler - 1/23/07, 7:20 am |
| Lugo has range, but he's another in the great line of "able to make awesome plays, yet badly
muffs 1 out of 15 soft grounders" shortstops. Nomar had range. Healthy Coco would be very exciting. |
| jimoo - 1/23/07, 7:23 am |
| Nomar was rated as having the worst range of any starting SS in the AL when he was with the sox. |
| severalmules - 1/23/07, 7:32 am |
| first off, thank god they didnt deal lowell away. i dont see neglecting loretta for pedroia as being
a great idea, but you have to get pedroia major league playing time and he wouldnt have gotten
nearly enough if loretta was still around. it feels like each year they are trying to set up a
postion at a time to be stable for a few years to come with some in house talent. hopefully pedroia
can step it up to the point youk had in his every day debut but i dont think thats realistic. as far as the rotation and bullpen goes, yeah its hard to say who is going to be doing what and when but as compared to the past few years they finally have enough depth and management to off set the worries of scheduling. individually i think youll see improvement from schilling, beckett and wakefield. |
| iheartlawyers - 1/23/07, 7:34 am |
| i don't think you'll be seeing clement this season. |
| jay - 1/23/07, 7:34 am |
| if anyone is interested im working on a spreadsheet averaging 2007 projections from ZiPS, Marcel, CHONE, PECOTA, and the Bill James Handbook I finished the pitchers already. Papelbon's numbers are slightly skewered by the fact that Marcel projects him as a closer. name: w-l era k/bb Schilling: 13-8 3.98 156/32 Beckett: 13-10 4.20 155/65 Matsuzaka 14-9 3.58 155/45 Papelbon 9-5 3.56 117/37 Wakefield 9-10 4.62 110/58 man i hope that lined up alright |
| nate - 1/23/07, 7:35 am |
| what is clement's status? last i heard, he was maybe gonna be able to pitch roundabout june or so |
| iheartlawyers - 1/23/07, 7:37 am |
| i think they found some unexploded WWII ordinance in his shoulder that sadly went off while he was mopping his furrowed amish brow one day. |
| jay - 1/23/07, 7:37 am |
| hahaha not skewered - skewed |
| severalmules - 1/23/07, 7:39 am |
| does anyone actually think clement is going to be a starting pitcher again? |
| severalmules - 1/23/07, 7:41 am |
| also, i got my tickets in the mail a few days ago for the last two spring training games at citizens bank park in philly. sox vs. phillies march 30th/31st. stoked. |
| jimoo - 1/23/07, 7:42 am |
| clement? sure he will, just probably not for the red sox |
| uhuru2u - 1/23/07, 7:44 am |
| .... i think the colts fucked up the patriots even though they had a zillion point lead in the beginning of the game. |
| jay - 1/23/07, 7:44 am |
| also: dustin pedroia will hit more doubles than mike lowell |
| severalmules - 1/23/07, 7:47 am |
| jimoo, even if he does id put money on him not becoming a starting rotation pitcher again in the next three years. hes in the last year of his contract with the sox and the starting rotation is full up. hes going to end up as middle relief and hes got a hell of a lot to prove that he can come back and do that without collapsing. for the money he makes i find it hard to believe that anyone would pay him that much again let alone to be a starting pitcher. scouts are constantly going to be factoring in the mental toll he took after getting hit in the head. |
| severalmules - 1/23/07, 7:48 am |
| jay, ill disagree with that. |
| jimoo - 1/23/07, 7:48 am |
| Starting pitching is always is poor supply. There are ALWAYS teams that will give a guy a chance to
be a starting pitcher, even after 2 - 14 years. It won't be with a contender, but if he wants to be a starting pitcher there will teams that will let him try. |
| ender - 1/23/07, 7:49 am |
| peter: by starters i meant, the starting lineup. |
| severalmules - 1/23/07, 7:50 am |
| ill grant you he could be in the starting rotation for the royals in three years but at that point i wont give a crap about the name 'clement'. |
| jay - 1/23/07, 7:52 am |
| severalmules - 01/23/07 at 11:48 am (63.117.228.138) jay, ill disagree with that. of course you will. i floated that out there for a reason. pedroia has plenty of extra base power - but not really much home run power. also if the jd drew signing is ridiculous - what does that say about julio "wrong tools on the wrong side of 30" lugo? |
| jimoo - 1/23/07, 7:53 am |
| Neither will I, but nevertheless, he will be a starter somewhere. Unless he decides middle relief is in his best interest (it very well may be, I don't know). |
| severalmules - 1/23/07, 7:57 am |
| jay, its not so much extra base power but being able to pull the ball in the manner that lowell can. that remains to be seen but lowell lead the league in doubles for most of last year for a reason: being a righty and able to ding the ball off the monster. pedroia in his 30 something games last year did not put up numbers to suggest that hes acclimating to the majors and itll take him some time this year to do so. in that time lowell will be walking out to london calling and smacking the ball off the monster. |
| jimoo - 1/23/07, 7:58 am |
| I wish I knew more about Julio Lugo. JD Drew still isn't signed, right? Or has something changed... |
| severalmules - 1/23/07, 7:59 am |
| jimoo, thats essentially the point i was getting at. as much as starters are in demand unless clement pulls a major turn around i see him languishing as middle relief. he will this year and i doubt coming off this contract anyone is going to pick him up as a starting pitcher. |
| jimoo - 1/23/07, 8:00 am |
| oh, well, we'll see. Even if he does nothing this year, or is injured all year, someone will give him a contract and invite him as a starting pitcher. There is always a need for arms. |
| jay - 1/23/07, 8:03 am |
| the reason why i think pedroia will beat lowell in doubles is that 1.) i'm just trying to start an argument 2.) i dont think lowell will have an injury free year. however - you and i both know that 89 at bats is a poor measure of a player, and like you said im sure itll take him some time to get used to major league pitching. that being established - fenway park moreso than any other park in the majors enhances a players number of doubles. |
| severalmules - 1/23/07, 8:07 am |
| i will be quite surprised if someone actually pays him to be a starting pitcher in 2k8 considering he had a 3 year/25 mil contract and in his second year he pitched 12 games (w/l - 5/5) above 6 era and is expected to not even start his final season with the sox on time as middle relief. |
| severalmules - 1/23/07, 8:13 am |
| projecting lowell to have an injury year seems far fetched and unfounded to me. no one actually thought he was going to come back from his 2k5 outing and have the year he did last year. an unexpectedly brilliant pick up to replace meuller that actually paid off. personally barring a freak injury i think hell continue and build on last year and i see pedroia as needing time to adjust that is going to make a doubles competition between him and lowell irrelevant. |
| jimoo - 1/23/07, 8:17 am |
| Well, we'll see. If someone like Pineiro, who has had 2.5 bad years and was 8-13 w/ a ERA over 6 can get 4 million a year from a contender like the Sox... then someone will give him a chance. |
| jay - 1/23/07, 8:20 am |
| i know lowell has been mostly injury free during his career its just a weird hunch. also mike lowell pre allstar break is much different than mike lowell post allstar break |
| severalmules - 1/23/07, 8:22 am |
| is pineiro coming off surgery to his labrum and rotator cuff? |
| Ian - 1/23/07, 8:36 am |
| KID, THE SOX ARE GONNA BE FUCKIN' AWESOME GUY JETER SWALLOWS |
| jimoo - 1/23/07, 8:38 am |
| severalmules - 01/23/07 at 12:22 pm (63.117.228.138) is pineiro coming off surgery to his labrum and rotator cuff? No, and neither would Clement next year. Pineiro is coming off an injury though. |
| severalmules - 1/23/07, 8:47 am |
| elbow trouble from 2k4? further youre talking about a former starter turned closer getting paid a one year contract of 4 mil after being shuffled on and off the dl and in and out of aaa. one might say youre actually making my argument for me. |
| Ian - 1/23/07, 8:48 am |
| Pineiro was injured in 2004. He was healthy all of the last two years though he was sent to the minors a couple times. |
| jimoo - 1/23/07, 9:00 am |
| He has never recovered his form from that injury. He has had 2.5 shitty years since then. Piniero (reportedly) had flexor muscle issues last year as well. |
| jimoo - 1/23/07, 9:12 am |
| More recent, Randy Wolf. 273 innings in the past three seasons, plagued with injuries including
tommy john surgery during that time period. Just got a contract including $8 million guarunteed. Adam Eaton, $24 million for 3 years. 193 innings over 37 starts last two years, recurring finger injury. |
| severalmules - 1/23/07, 10:17 am |
| i just typed up a huge response to that and it got deleted. ill sum it up briefly, neither adam eaton or randy wolf have averaged more than six innings per game and in the past two years and dropped 10 to 15 games from their average. the only thing they have to show for that over clement is a better era. they are innings eaters as opposed to dependable starting pitchers. further, while they may have received contracts post injuries they are not labeled with the stigma of a pitcher that lost his nerve do to getting hit in the head. clement may get another contract but id be hard pressed to believe itll be for much money as a starting pitcher who is going to go past 15 games. |
| uallach - 1/23/07, 11:16 am |
| they're gonna win like 120 games |
| jay - 4/11/09, 3:59 am |
| top jay - 01/23/07 - 11:44 am (76.19.196.169) also: dustin pedroia will hit more doubles than mike lowell |
| Wes - 4/11/09, 6:18 am |
| I am convinced jimoo is actually four or five different sociologists. |
| reply without loggin in ... or don't |